Insights April 2009
The results of our 2009 National Travel Monitor™ will be released in three weeks, and the findings with respect to the travel intentions of Americans mirror those we have reported recently in our travelhorizons™ series: the percentage of leisure travelers planning "more trips" in the year ahead exceeds the percentage planning "fewer trips." Specifically, more than half of all leisure travelers are planning to take the same number of leisure trips this year compared to last. Fully one quarter plan to take more trips, and approximately one in five expects to take fewer trips. The net positive difference (more versus fewer trips) of 7% observed this year compares favorably with the net positive difference observed in both 2007 and 2008 (11% each year). And although the difference observed is not statistically significant, the directional shift will certainly come as good news for the travel industry. The three-year trend is summarized below:
|
%
2007 |
%
2008 |
%
2009 |
|
| Plan To Take During Next 12 Months: | |||
| More trips |
33
|
27
|
25
|
| Same number of trips |
41
|
56
|
55
|
| Fewer trips |
22
|
16
|
18
|
| None |
4
|
1
|
1
|
| Net positive difference |
11
|
11
|
7
|
Among leisure travelers planning fewer trips in the year ahead, "concern about the economy" is cited as the primary reason why. Other reasons cited by respondents include "concerns about the household budget," "cutting back on spending," and the "need or want to do some projects they have been putting off at home." It is interesting to note the same proportion of leisure travelers cited concerns about the economy this year versus last, while the "need/want to do projects at home" and "gasoline prices being too high" declined significantly. Equally interesting to note is the fact that the number one reason cited for taking fewer trips just 3 years ago ("can’t get the time off from work") is now cited by only 4% of leisure travelers.
|
%
2009 |
|
| Reasons For Taking Fewer Leisure Trips:* | |
| Concerned about economy |
19
|
| Household budget concerns |
16
|
| Cutting back on spending |
15
|
| Need/want to do some projects I’ve been putting off at home |
7
|
| Health reasons |
5
|
| Travel in general is too expensive |
5
|
| No time |
4
|
| Concerned about job security |
4
|
| Can’t get the time off from work |
4
|
| Airfares are too expensive |
3
|
| Don’t travel/Don’t ever travel |
2
|
| Children too young |
2
|
| Family obligations/new baby/children, in general |
2
|
| Age |
2
|
| Moving |
1
|
| Plan to take fewer trips |
1
|
| Gasoline prices are too high |
1
|
| There are other things I’d rather do with my vacation/leisure time other than travel |
1
|
| Haven’t planned yet |
1
|
| No companion |
0
|
| Planning for a big trip/expensive trip |
0
|
| Other |
2
|
| Don’t know/refused |
3
|
| * Asked among those planning to take fewer leisure trips in the next 12 months than they did in the last 12 months. | |
For further information on how to order a copy of the 2009 National Travel Monitor™ click here.
May 1st, 2009 at 12:20 pm
Is that a light I see at the end of the tunnel? Great news for all of us.
May 1st, 2009 at 2:49 pm
I am at a little loss here. Why are you saying that a net positive difference of 7 in 2009 compares favorably with 11 in 2007 & 2008?
May 1st, 2009 at 5:01 pm
Some research from STR also seems to indicate a trough in travel demand as well as ADR, which supports the Insights research, if from a different perspective. I remain concerned that hoteliers and other lodging owners have dived too fast and too deeply into discounting as a way to survive. Only in 2007 did ADR finally go past where it would have been if rates had trended inflation from 2002-2007, so let’s hope that the shock doesn’t last too long this time and operators come to their senses. Our guess at The B&B Team is that those who have held their rates and have instead added value and creative packaging will come out the clear winners when the dust settles in a year or two.
May 1st, 2009 at 5:32 pm
Certainly a glimmer….although still relatively low wattage!
As for the net positive difference, the reason it’s encouraging is twofold: 1) it’s positive, and 2) the difference from the levels recorded in 2007/2008 is not statistically significant.
May 2nd, 2009 at 6:14 am
European situation is similar. “Crisis sensible tourist” are changing their travel program as the summer gets nearer and temperature improves.
Also Prof. Freitag (IPK World Travel Monitor) sees a light at the end of the tunnel. Concerning a specific small market (Italy) we published a few days ago our annual research concerning national holidays destinations. Our forecast for italian tourism arrivals 2009 is still -3/4%.
Our Italian Hotel Monitor (47 large cities) measures heavy crisis in the upscale segment. January-March 2009, Florence, Venice, Rome and Milan lost around 26% room occupancy.
I was in New York last week … in the upper upscale hotels prices are incredible! A double room at the Mandarin Oriental “week end rate” 1075 dollars plus hotel taxes … and 90 minutes to receive the baggage. No crisis ?
Last comment. Our forecasts could receive a shock or an unpleasant surprise from the swine flu.
May 2nd, 2009 at 4:26 pm
DO YOU HAVE ANY PLANS TO MESURE OF THE EFECT OF H1A1 (SWAINE INFLUENZA), ON MEXICO LEASURE TRAVEL EXPECTATIONS?
May 2nd, 2009 at 4:44 pm
Yes, we are planning to begin surveying the US population on this subject during the next two weeks (depending on the spread of the virus between now and then).
May 19th, 2009 at 11:16 am
Hi Peter - i attended your speach at the New hampshire Governor’s conference and having trouble finding the information you spoke about on your website. Please provide for me, it was awesome information. Many thanks
May 20th, 2009 at 7:11 am
Go to the Publications section of http://www.ypartnership.com and join the Forum. There you’ll find copies of our e-newsletters from the past several years….
May 24th, 2009 at 8:23 pm
Nice post, just what I was looking for, i’ve add myself on to your feed, keep up the good work.
February 12th, 2010 at 10:06 am
Ich Selbst habe dar