Insights March 2009
Most industry chatter is replete with anecdotal reports of cancelled business trips, meeting planners who are re-booking groups to more cosmetically “acceptable” venues in order to avoid the glare of the press, and postponed vacations. Yet the fact of the matter is the incidence of travel in America remains robust, as revealed in our most recent travelhorizons™ survey. The February (2009) edition of this nationally-representative survey of 2,200 U.S. adults which we co-author every 90 days with the U.S. Travel Association revealed that almost two thirds (63%) of U.S. adults are planning to take at least one overnight trip primarily for leisure purposes during the next 6 months (versus 60% in January 2008). Not surprisingly, intentions to travel increase with household income (fully 8 out of 10 households with an annual income over $75,000 are planning at least one overnight trip for leisure purposes during the next 6 months). And one out of 6 adults (16%) is planning to take at least one overnight trip primarily for business purposes during the next 6 months.
So contrary to what one might conclude from the prevailing news headlines, the problem does not appear to be a decline in the percentage of adults who are traveling for either business or pleasure. Rather, the real culprit is revealed in the replies given by respondents to a question about how, if at all, they are planning to change their travel behavior in the months ahead as summarized below:
EXPECTED CHANGE IN TRAVEL PLANS AMONG
ACTIVE TRAVELERS WHO ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE PLANS
|
More Likely To:
|
|
| Book package to save money |
87%
|
| Spend less overall |
84%
|
| Comparison shop online |
64%
|
| Take more day trips |
64%
|
| Stay fewer nights |
51%
|
As revealed in the table, the most frequently anticipated “changes” in future travel behavior appear to be motivated by a desire to reduce the cost of travel. No surprise here (hence the reason for the “trading down” phenomenon now underway in practically every category of the travel industry). And the Internet is clearly the weapon of choice. But the market force that appears to be exerting downward pressure on demand is the conscious effort on the part of travelers to reduce the number of nights they plan to spend away from home, regardless of the purpose of their trip (business or leisure). Fully half of all travelers who state they are likely to modify their future travel behavior plan to do so by staying fewer nights. Assuming an average trip length of 3 nights for business and 4 nights for leisure, the negative impact of the realization of this expectation on the lodging, cruise and attraction industries in particular could be significant. So the implication is clear: the real challenge facing the travel industry is less one of getting people to take trips they otherwise were going to postpone or cancel, and more one of getting them to extend their length of stay. This should therefore be the focus of your creativity, and communications, in future marketing programs.
For further information about the results of our February travelhorizons™ survey visit the Publications section of www.ypartnership.com.
March 31st, 2009 at 6:51 pm
Peter,
Looking forward to seeing you in Savannah. - Evan Smith Newport Rhode Island CVB
March 31st, 2009 at 6:58 pm
With pleasure, thanks.
March 31st, 2009 at 7:17 pm
Hi Peter,
Thank you for your useful information. It was a pleasure seeing you in NYC last November.
Take care
Mac Chaudhry
Hilton Marco Island Beach Resort and Spa
Florida
March 31st, 2009 at 8:04 pm
The pleasure was mine, and please extend my best wishes to “Doc!”
March 31st, 2009 at 9:51 pm
Peter,
How’s travel from Latin America to the U.S. looking???? I’m interested in the high- end South American consumer.. Has the global downturn affected that demo???
Thanks,
Ross
April 1st, 2009 at 4:41 am
Good, encouraging info. Matches what my company’s bookings are revealing. Timly info….will use in my presentation this morning to Vacation Rental Managers Assn, just before Mary Jane and Amanda give their report on the great progress being made by Y Partnership on behalf of VRMA.
….Alex Risser…Pres, VRMA
April 1st, 2009 at 6:32 am
Although we don’t track specific numbers from these markets, what I am hearing from our clients is that demand from Latin America has held up reasonably well so far.
April 1st, 2009 at 8:51 am
Thank you Peter, sounds encouraging…I have a project that will need you’re expertise…Please let me know
if you have time to see me this week. You can contact me by email, rossgarcia@mac.com. I will explain in
greater detail.
Thanks again..
April 1st, 2009 at 10:07 am
Thanks. Let’s set a time for a call. How do you look early afternoon tomorrow?
April 1st, 2009 at 10:09 am
Hi Peter,
Very interesting perspective.
We have just completed our March tracking study #15 of the wealthiest 10% of US households. About 70% say they will spend the same or more as last year for domestic vacation travel and 56% say the same about international vacation travel.
Among those reducing or deferring their overall expenditures, the 71% who say they will reduce domestic vacation expenses cite fewer trips (53%), staying in less expensive accommodations (28%), shorter trips (20%), and driving rather than flying (19%) as the major ways they will cut expenses. The responses for international vacation travel were very similar.
The highlights of this survey will be posted at http://www.affluenceresearch.org the week of April 13.
Best regards, Ron
April 1st, 2009 at 11:29 am
Thanks Peter as always for your insights. If value for money is the name of the game, Mexico is a great option for US travelers due to the deprecition of the Mexican peso. Regards. Teresa
April 1st, 2009 at 12:06 pm
Agreed, and hope you are well!
Saludos.
April 1st, 2009 at 12:51 pm
Peter.. Please let me know if you’re in town so I can have the pitch book delivered to your office, this will help you understand our project… In a nutshell, I created the City of Miami’s New Year’s Celebration, a $20 million production that is scheduled to debut in 2010. We have moved the launch because of the economy, we feel that by next year things may improve enough to take another swing at a debut. As you know, the economy drives everything especially in the travel industry. I have a world of respect for you and what your agency does. I think Y Partnership is the right fit for New Year’s Miami. We are considering an agency move, Radiate Group / Omnicom has been a key partner in our efforts, their stable of clients were a perfect fit until the economy reversed and leveled the automotive category.
I will be available any time tomorrow…. afternoon, evening, early morning…You decide! I can be reached at 321.948.1485 or I can call you…
Looking forward to discussing this wonderful project with you.
Ross
April 1st, 2009 at 3:44 pm
Peter:
It was nice meeting you in Morelia with our Consejo friends, now I am at Zihuatanejo, Gerrero.
Great information you send please change my e mail addres to the above, to keep geting it.
One question this info is only for an overnight trip or more than one night.
Best Regards,
April 3rd, 2009 at 4:44 pm
Peter: We were so fortunate to have you as key note speaker at the NJ Gov Conference for Tourism. As a NJ DMO, your industry insight was invaluable. I look forward to receiving your updates and hopefully catching up with you again, perhaps as a DMAI event.
April 3rd, 2009 at 5:16 pm
Many thanks for your kind remarks. It was a pleasure to return to AC, and I wish you the very best in the months ahead.
April 3rd, 2009 at 5:17 pm
Alejandro, great hearing from you as well, and I have asked my assistant to add your new email address to our data base.
Saludos!
April 6th, 2009 at 3:04 pm
Peter, Rick and I enjoyed seeing you at the PAII conference in Atlanta. Our afternoon session that followed on your trends session of the morning was well received, so we thank you for reviewing it with us. We incorporated a few more of your trends stats, and the innkeepers present felt that we translated your research (which we at The B&B Team LOVE) into meaningful, actionable strategies for them. We look forward to seeing you again.
April 6th, 2009 at 4:57 pm
Delighted to hear it, thanks!
April 13th, 2009 at 9:42 am
[...] to subscribe to our RSS feed. Thanks for visiting!Peter Yesawich had some interesting data in his March Insights report at the Ypartnership Blog. There is bullish data on people planning to take a trip. That is nice [...]
April 18th, 2009 at 6:31 pm
Thank you for the information. In fact, living here in Southern California, with a large percentage of people are making shorter trips, especially day trips, I couldn’t live or blog in a better place.
With so much to do, and so little time, everyone is a winner.
April 22nd, 2009 at 6:45 am
[...] Peter Yesawich’s March 2009 Insights on Travel Trends [...]
November 19th, 2009 at 12:08 am
OMG just dawned on me how simple this all boils down
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